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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          09/17 08:34

   Cotton Has Top-Heavy Slant

   Cotton is lower Friday morning as traders are becoming ever so disappointed 
with the market's action. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Cotton is lower Friday morning as traders are becoming ever so disappointed 
with the market's action. Although certain speculators are massively net long, 
to date the December contract has yet to settle above the 95.00 mark. Moreover, 
despite the appearances of several weather adversities hitting the Delta and 
the Southeast, the perception (which is often considered reality) is that Texas 
has a massive crop. Additionally, there are certain negative clouds gathering 
over the financial markets regarding the potential tapering action the Federal 
Reserve is likely to take next week.

   From Thursday's export sales data, we note cumulative sales for 2021/22 have 
reached 6.307 million bales. This amount is down from last year's 7.630 million 
bales and is also below the five-year average of 7.263 million. Sales have 
reached 43% of the USDA's forecast for the marketing year, versus a five-year 
average of 51%.

   Weather-wise, the 1 to 5-day forecast calls for moderately heavy rains 
across most of Mississippi, Alabama and a large swath of Georgia. However, the 
6 to 10-day and 8 to 14-day outlooks show a much drier trend. Typically, 
October 1 is considered the official kick-off date for harvest by the trade. 

   For Friday, close-in support for December cotton is 92.00 cents and 91.50 
cents, while resistance stands at 93.20 cents and 94.00 cents. The estimated 
morning volume is 4,401 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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