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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          03/05 08:09

   Cotton Lower Still, But It's Friday

   The cotton market peeled lower late Thursday and into the night as long 
liquidation is occurring.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market peeled lower late Thursday and into the night as long 
liquidation is occurring. The market posted a super 11-month peak on February 
25 and has been struggling for air ever since. 

   Friday morning the Labor Department 379,000 non-farm jobs were created in 
February. This may be attributed to COVID infections falling and more of the 
country being inoculated. Expectations were from 185,000 to 210,000 jobs would 
be added. The number immediately jumped short-term yields above the previous 
1.50% to 1.62%. That move jolted the U.S. dollar higher.  

   From Thursday's weekly export sales data, cumulative sales for 2020/21 have 
reached 13.578 million bales, down from 13.347 million at the same time last 
year. However, the current number is the second highest since the 2010/11 
season. The five-year average is 11.277 million. Cumulative sales have reached 
95% of the USDA's forecast for the marketing year versus a five-year average of 
85%.

   Next Tuesday, USDA will issue its March Crop Report. Early industry 
estimates have U.S. ending stocks being 4.06 million bales (ranging 3.90-4.30 
million), down from 4.30 million in February. World ending stocks are expected 
to come in at 95.50 million bales, (range 94.81-96.00 million), down from 95.74 
million in February. The report is out at 12:00 p.m. EST. 

   For Friday, support for May cotton is 86.25 cents and 85.75 cents, with 
resistance at 89.15 cents and 89.75 cents. The estimated morning volume is 
12,920 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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